Stuart Rothenberg Moves CT-04 To “Tilt Democratic”
Another prognosticator says this race now tilts towards Jim Himes:
TOSS-UP/TILT DEMOCRATIC (12 R, 3 D)
* CO 4 (Musgrave, R)
* CT 4 (Shays, R) #
* FL 8 (Keller, R)
* GA 8 (Marshall, D)
* ID 1 (Sali, R) #
* KS 2 (Boyda, D)
* MN 3 (Open; Ramstad, R)
* MN 6 (Bachmann, R) #
* NV 3 (Porter, R)
* NH 1 (Shea-Porter, D)
* NJ 3 (Open; Saxton, R)
* NM1 (Open; Wilson, R)
* NY 29 (Kuhl, R)
* OH 15 (Open; Pryce, R) #
* PA 3 (English, R)
Rothenberg's reasoning?
...Republican strategists had expected McCain to run far stronger in those districts than he is, and they believe that would have helped the party’s House candidates.
If McCain is doing poorly in those districts, it’s not hard to see the kind of a drag he has become in districts likely to go for Obama even in the best of circumstances.
Connecticut moderate Rep. Christopher Shays was able to squeeze out a 52 percent win in 2004 even as Bush was losing the district with 46 percent of the vote. But this time, with McCain running 20 points behind Obama in the district in two media polls, it is unclear whether Shays can run far enough ahead of McCain to survive.
All the more reason to get out the vote this weekend!
