Thursday Morning Round-Up: CT-04 Leans Dem
McCain, Palin, and Bush continute to drag down Chris Shays, and a noted prognosticator moves the race from Leans R to Leans D. Here's the news this morning:
- The New Republic has a profile of the race this morning, including one of many voters who is switching from Shays to Himes:
I asked Shays how he could reconcile his support of Palin with his worldview. "If people want to say she has views about government that I disagree with--what she has and what I like about her is what I like about John McCain," he responded, adding, "I really believe she is one gutsy person that is willing to shake things up in her state in a way that few men have." In other words, Shays supports Palin because he sees her as a fellow maverick.
But that stance could cost him in a district where Obama currently leads by ten points. At a town fair in working-class Shelton, I met Linda Robak, a 54-year-old who had long counted herself a Shays fan but is now working for the Himes campaign. "It all changed when he endorsed Sarah Palin and called her a qualified candidate for v.p.," Robak told me. "Three weeks ago, I sent him a letter. I always respected him, but he threw away his credibility."
- Larry Sabato takes note of the Obama-Himes surge and the McCain-Shays drag, moves CT-04 a full two slots from "Leans R" to "Leans D":
HOUSE RACE UPDATE - Democratic Domination Continues
Larry J. Sabato, Isaac Wood, and Paul Wiley, Crystal Ball, U.Va. Center for Politics
Every week it seems to get worse for House Republicans. As we will demonstrate below, we have expanded the number of possible to likely net gains for Democrats from our previous 15 to 20 to a new and rather astounding 22 to 27 seats.
The past week has been a wild one for congressional races nationwide. Some contests have gotten more competitive, and in some districts one party has even pulled away. And by "one party," we do in fact mean "one party"--the Democrats. This week the Crystal Ball is making 33 changes to its House ratings, some of them major, and others minor. In all but two of those races the changes benefit Democrats....
RATINGS CHANGES
District Incumbent Previous Rating New RatingCT-04 Shays Leans R Leans D
- The Cook Report looks at the recent polling and concurs:
"That's a very bad place for Chris Shays to be," Wasserman said in a phone interview. "Forty-four percent against a not-very-well-known quantity is a very serious warning sign."
Wasserman said that most uncommitted voters tend to vote for the challenger and support the majority party in the district.
