WaPo, Stuart Rothenberg on Obama Surge And CT-04
CT-04 gets a lot of ink and pixels today, from the Wall Street Journal to the Politico to the local papers on the recent poll and Jim's strong debate performances... check the news section for all the details.
The emerging consensus among all seems to be that Shays at 44%, plus the Obama surge, plus Shays' ties to the policies and party of John McCain, put him at a distinct disadvantage two weeks out from election day. From the front page of today's Washington Post:
The importance of the black vote is so great, even though it represents just 11 percent of the district, that Shays is running ads directly aimed at Bridgeport that feature African American residents testifying about his effectiveness in Congress. Another Shays ad includes an image of Obama, in the most direct attempt by a House Republican to tie himself to the top of the Democratic ticket.
Himes based his campaign headquarters in Bridgeport and has sent mailings tailored to African American voters. He has met with minority organizations and, like Kissell and others, has made the rounds of black churches.
Noted House prognosticator Stuart Rothenberg adds in an analysis for CNN today:
WASHINGTON (CNN) -- Chris Shays of Connecticut, the last Republican in the House of Representatives from New England, is used to running against the partisan tide. But this year, the wave might be too high for the Republican congressman to overcome.
Recent polls show Republican Rep. Chris Shays tied with or trailing his Democratic opponent in Connecticut...
McCain, R-Arizona, trailed Illinois Sen. Barack Obama by 21 points in Connecticut's 4th District, according to an October 13-14 SurveyUSA poll for Roll Call newspaper. A just-released University of Connecticut poll and a mid-September survey by the Democratic Feldman Group also had Obama winning by at least 20 points. By comparison, Democratic presidential candidate John Kerry won the district by just 6 points four years ago.
Recent public and private polling shows Shays either tied with or trailing his Democratic opponent Jim Himes. In 2004, Shays got 6 more points than President Bush, but the congressman will need a significantly larger number of Obama voters to cross over this year.
He concludes:
A big wave for Obama might be too much of a burden for Republican congressional candidates to bear at a time when they are already saddled with an unpopular Republican president and an unpopular Republican brand.
