Shays Knows Himes Could Ride Obama Wave
Hartford Courant, Saturday, November 01, 2008
By MARK PAZNIOKAS
At a Baptist church in the African American community, Jim Himes' congressional campaign conveyed a message simple enough to fit on a button:
Himes is on the same team as Barack Obama.
Nearly everyone in the basement of the Faith Tabernacle Missionary Baptist Church, where Himes treated three dozen people to a light breakfast Friday, wore buttons with side-by-side portraits of Obama and Himes.
U.S. Rep. Maxine Waters, D-Calif., a prominent member of the Congressional Black Caucus, praised Himes as an able partner for Obama, a message she intended to repeat at events in Bridgeport and Norwalk.
The Democrats' campaign to unseat U.S. Rep. Christopher Shays, R-4th District, the only GOP congressman in New England, is likely to be won or lost Tuesday in the black neighborhoods of Bridgeport, Stamford and Norwalk.
A key will be convincing voters, some of whom will be first-timers drawn by the historic prospect of electing the first black president, to also vote for Democrats farther down the ballot.
At Faith Tabernacle, the Rev. Tommie Jackson welcomed the 42-year-old Himes, a lanky former investment banker from Greenwich, back to his church, which the challenger has visited at least three times since declaring his candidacy last year.
"The goal is to create linkage to the presidential campaign: A President Obama is only as good as the Democratic majority he can win with," said state Sen. Andrew McDonald, D-Stamford.
If Democrat Diane Farrell had captured more of presidential candidate John Kerry's supporters four years ago, she would have won. Kerry carried the district by 23,833 votes, but Farrell lost to Shays by 14,160.
Two years ago, Farrell fell 7,060 votes short in a rematch as a Democratic tide unseated two GOP incumbents in Connecticut and flipped control of Congress.
After a speech to the Greenwich Chamber of Commerce Friday afternoon, Shays said he sees another tide coming.
"Do I feel I am swimming against a strong tide? Of course," said Shays, a 21-year incumbent. "And do I think that it could mean that I don't win this election? I think that's very possible."
But Shays, 63, who appeared frantic two years ago as he fought to keep his seat, said he is at peace this year, confident that his campaign has made the race about his record.
"I'm going to win or lose based on the job I've done. That's what I believe. I believe that with all my heart and soul," Shays said.
Shays has based his campaign on commercials stressing his independence from Republicans in Congress - one ad even featured Obama - and an 88-page booklet that summarizes his voting record.
One chart in the publication shows that he voted with President Bush only 33 percent of the time last year, less than Obama, Hillary Rodham Clinton or Ted Kennedy.
In 2002, when Bush was at the height of his popularity after the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks, Shays supported the president 82 percent of the time. On average, it has been 59 percent.
Shays supported Bush on the 2001 and 2003 tax cuts that lowered the four highest tax brackets. The cuts expire in 2011 unless re-approved by Congress.
Himes, who gave up a career at Goldman Sachs to help run a nonprofit that develops housing for the urban poor, said the cuts actually were tax deferrals, since they were not accompanied by spending reductions.
"They will be paid for by our children," Himes said.
Just as fervently as it has embraced Obama, Himes' campaign has linked Shays to Bush whenever possible.
A Himes television commercial now airing shows two pieces of a photograph, Bush on one side and Shays on the other. As the two pieces come together, Shays and Bush join hands.
Shays called his own campaign, where the ads focus on his record and largely ignore his opponent, an experiment.
"This is going to be an amazing opportunity for political scientists. They have someone who has not got one negative commercial," he said.
At the Millbrook Club, a country club at the heart of a planned community, Shays and Himes took turns Friday addressing the Greenwich chamber over lunch in a sunny, upstairs dining room. They stood before an expanse of windows that framed a view of golden fall foliage.
Himes took care to say that even though he criticized the Bush cuts, he is not advocating reversing them in a recession. Here, Himes put a little distance between himself and Obama.
In a community with one of the highest per-capita incomes in the nation, Obama's proposal to raise the rates on incomes above $250,000 does not win many votes.
"Yes, I have some commonality with the guy who's at the top of my ticket," Himes said.
But Himes said he opposed Obama's call for a windfall profits tax on oil producers and disliked an idea Obama floated to raise Social Security taxes, which now are imposed on only the first $102,000 of wages.
"What he has proposed would make it a little bit more of a welfare system, where wealthier people put in more than they take out," Himes said. "I think that's a bad idea."
Himes also said he was more supportive of free trade than Obama.
"I'm a businessman. I understand that over time, trade does lift all boats," Himes said. "I do want to make sure trade is fair, that we don't all of a sudden put hundreds of thousands of people in Michigan out of work."
Shays and Himes have interspersed a few compliments for each other with their critiques. Weeks ago, Shays said Himes probably would be a "capable" congressman.
On Friday, Himes said of Shays: "Is he a bad guy? I don't think he is. In fact, I respect his service over 21 years to this country. I happen to think he has been very, very wrong on two critical issues."
One is Shays' support for the invasion of Iraq, a decision he now calls a mistake, given that he now knows the U.S. government was wrong when it claimed that Saddam Hussein had weapons of mass destruction.
Himes said Shays also has been wrong to insist that the fundamentals of the economy were sound. Shays has not retreated on that view.
Both men seemed upbeat as they left the chamber speech with an eye toward their last weekend of campaigning.
Shays, a state co-chairman of John McCain's campaign, already has said he expects Obama to win on Tuesday. He said he is ready for whatever comes in his own contest.
"If I lose this race, I'm not going to blame anybody. I'm not going to blame Barack Obama," he said. "I'm just going to say my constituents said, 'It's time to move on.' And then I will get out of politics. I will have effectively been fired."
