(Jim voting this morning at his polling place in Cos Cob.)

The day is finally here. 

30 minutes until polls open.

Find your polling place and remind your friends to vote today here.

Give us any election day reports in the comments below, or email them to blog-at-himesforcongress-dot-com.

It's get out the vote time. Here's your checklist for the next 24 hours:

1. Volunteer on Monday and Tuesday:

The most important place we need you is on the ground Monday, Nov. 3rd and Tuesday, Nov. 4th -- poll standing, phone banking, giving rides to the polls, and getting out the vote for Jim Himes! Click here to volunteer to get out the vote in your town on Monday and Tuesday.

2. Remind your friends and family to vote for Jim Himes:

Remind your friends to vote for change across the ballot on Tuesday. Click here to send a reminder to your email contact list to vote for Jim Himes.

3. Make a last-minute contribution:

If you can't be here with us on the ground, you can still make a contribution to help us keep the campaign going at full speed on the air and on the ground until we hit the finish line. Click here to make a last-minute contribution.

4. Find your polling place:

Make sure you, your friends, and your family members all know where to go vote on Tuesday. Click here to enter your address and find your polling place.

5. Remember to vote!

Polls are open on Tuesday, November 4th from 6AM to 8PM ET in every town in the Fourth Congressional District. Remember to vote!

And the Bridgeport News was at the big Obama-Himes rally last night:

Democrats are hoping for a big turnout in Bridgeport, where registered Democrats outnumber Republicans by a more than nine-to-one margin. This is particularly important for Democratic congressional candidate Jim Himes, who is locked in a close battle with longtime Republican incumbent U.S. Rep. Christopher Shays.

A strong showing by Himes in Bridgeport is considered essential to defeating Shays, a Bridgeport resident who has served since 1987. Some Democratic leaders are worried many first-time or sporadic voters — including in the minority community — will vote for Obama but not bother voting for candidates in other races.

Secretary of the State Susan Bysiewicz, a Democrat, said 300,000 new people have registered to vote in Connecticut in the Nov. 4 election. “Barack Obama has inspired thousands and thousands of people” to get involved in the electoral process, Bysiewicz said.

Democratic U.S. Rep. Rosa DeLauro of New Haven said the election’s “ground zero stretches from Bridgeport to Greenwich,” referring to the eastern and western boundaries of Shays’ district. “Chris Shays has stood with President Bush on Iraq and the economy,” DeLauro said.

Himes, a Greenwich resident, said he would work with Obama to improve health-care and education, and the new president would benefit from having more Democrats in Congress. “Barack Obama will lead a Congress and Senate that will have his back,” Himes predicted.

Less than 100 hours to go before polls open. Here's this morning's news:

- The AP, the Courant, and the CT Post all lead with the Obama ad for Jim. Here's CT GOP Chair Chris Healy's comment to Ken Dixon:

HARTFORD -- Democratic 4th Congressional District challenger Jim Himes has become one of the few candidates for the U.S. House of Representatives for whom U.S. Sen. Barack Obama, D-Ill., has recorded a radio spot.

The Himes campaign will begin airing the political advertisement immediately, in an attempt to counteract a commercial that U.S. Rep. Christopher Shays has used over the past couple of weeks featuring New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg.

In the radio ad, presidential candidate Obama urges listeners to support Himes, saying he needs their help in electing him to Congress. He adds that he wants to "change the way Washington does business."...

"It's fine. So what?" Healy asked. "I think people understand Chris Shays' record and value. Barack Obama talking about Jim Himes, whom I doubt he's ever met, it won't draw flies."

And CTBob's response to Chris Healy:

I know it's not really a great year to be a Republican, but you have to be completely devoid of common sense to say the things that Chris Healy says on a nearly daily basis.

CTBob also has this great homemade YouTube of the Obama radio ad:

- Todd Beeton on the ad:

This is a particularly big get for Himes for a couple of reasons. First of all, CT-04 -- my old stomping grounds -- is a D+5 district. Obama is absolutely going to crush this district and pairing Obama and Himes is crucial for Jim to win. Shays keeps winning because Democrats and Independents keep voting for him. Obama is sending the signal that that is not an option this year. Also, in 2006, Shays's Democratic challenger went into election day with many polls having her tied or winning but where she lost it was with the anemic turnout among voters in the district's largest city, Bridgeport. We know that won't be a problem this year at the presidential level. Obama is doing his best to make sure that the surge of voters that turns out for him trickles down to Jim. Help Jim keep this ad on my parents' radio by contributing to his campaign HERE.

- The Evans Novak Report rates CT-04 as Leans Dem, joining Larry Sabato and Stuart Rothenberg in predicting a blue wave in CT-04.

- The Hour reports on the increases in Latino registration in Norwalk and Stamford this year:

Telling Latinos "¡Tu Voto Si Cuenta!" -- "Your Vote Does Count!" -- in a multimedia ad campaign led an estimated 21,570 Connecticut Hispanics to register to vote, according to Secretary of the State Susan Bysiewicz.

In a Wednesday news release, Bysiewicz said the jump in Latino voter registrations included an estimated 599 people in Norwalk and 765 in Stamford.

The increase in registered Latinos was measured from June 10, when the campaign began, until last Tuesday, said spokesman Av Harris.

- GOTV!

Another prognosticator says this race now tilts towards Jim Himes:

TOSS-UP/TILT DEMOCRATIC (12 R, 3 D)

* CO 4 (Musgrave, R)
* CT 4 (Shays, R) #
* FL 8 (Keller, R)
* GA 8 (Marshall, D)
* ID 1 (Sali, R) #
* KS 2 (Boyda, D)
* MN 3 (Open; Ramstad, R)
* MN 6 (Bachmann, R) #
* NV 3 (Porter, R)
* NH 1 (Shea-Porter, D)
* NJ 3 (Open; Saxton, R)
* NM1 (Open; Wilson, R)
* NY 29 (Kuhl, R)
* OH 15 (Open; Pryce, R) #
* PA 3 (English, R)

Rothenberg's reasoning?

...Republican strategists had expected McCain to run far stronger in those districts than he is, and they believe that would have helped the party’s House candidates.

If McCain is doing poorly in those districts, it’s not hard to see the kind of a drag he has become in districts likely to go for Obama even in the best of circumstances.

Connecticut moderate Rep. Christopher Shays was able to squeeze out a 52 percent win in 2004 even as Bush was losing the district with 46 percent of the vote. But this time, with McCain running 20 points behind Obama in the district in two media polls, it is unclear whether Shays can run far enough ahead of McCain to survive.

All the more reason to get out the vote this weekend!

In the wake of another trademark desperation Chris Shays election-year move -- this time throwing the McCain campaign, of which he is a co-chair, under the bus -- both the traditional media and the blogosphere are calling him out today:

Scarce at MLN (with video from Hardball on MSNBC):

I suppose this would be surprising coming from the co-chair McCain's Connecticut campaign if it were anyone else but Chris Shays. But right now survival is the name of the game and it's every man for himself.

CTBob:

So, we have Chris Shays making his characteristic "change of heart" noises the last week before the election. Remember how during the closing days of the 2006 campaign he blathered desperately about wanting all our troops withdrawn from Iraq by December, 2007?

We all know how well that worked out. He forgot about his promise the minute the votes were counted. He forgot his words.

That is, until this year, when he needed to drudge them up once again, to help him hang on.

Words to Chris Shays are exactly that...just words. He did a terrible job as McCain's local co-chair, and then he abandoned the man when he realized McCain might be a political liability in the final days. He used Barack Obama's name and face in his ads in a sleazy attempt to jump on a winner's bandwagon. He will say or do anything in the hopes he'll dupe enough well-meaning voters into giving him another two years to continue George Bush's policies in Washington.

Howie Klein chimes in as well:

Chris Shays is a self-serving hack from a blue district in Connecticut who manages to stay in office by distancing himself from his right-wing voting record at election time. This year, up against an energetic and much smarter opponent, Jim Himes, it looks like Shays' old tactic isn't working. So instead, the Chairman of McCain's campaign committee in Connecticut has come up with an interesting new strategy: attacking McCain, when he's on the ground... and groping for a break.

And Suzy Khimm at TNR gets it exactly right:

The polls for the Presidential race may be tightening once again, but that hasn’t stopped vulnerable Republicans from jumping ship—if not for the Obama camp, than at least as far away from the McCain campaign as possible. In my story in the current issue of TNR, I explain how Chris Shays, the only New England Republican in the House, has imperiled his own chances for survival by openly embracing the McCain-Palin ticket. Well, it looks like Shays himself has realized the hazards of such loyalty in a district where Obama is now leading by 59 percent...

Shays’s harsh appraisal is a real turnaround from the full-throated praise that he has espoused for the GOP ticket up until now. The Connecticut representative is currently running neck and neck with Jim Himes, the Democratic challenger in the 4th district, and his recent comments sound like a last-minute attempt to win over voters who’ve long had faith in Shays’s own version of moderate, independent-minded Republicanism. But, at this point, Shays’s about-face seems like too little, way too late. Whatever the outcome in Connecticut’s 4th, it seems clear that McCain won’t be the only one to have tarnished his maverick brand in this election.

Today's Connecticut Post follows up on Sunday's investigative New York Post story on Chris Shays's support for legislation that would allow for more risky mortgages -- and his $800,000 worth of support from a the National Association of Realtors PAC this year:

The New York Post reported Sunday that Shays' effort to overturn the ban on what the tabloid dubbed "the riskiest type of government-backed mortgages" had "raised a few eyebrows in his district." In July, Congress passed legislation that banned Federal Housing Administration mortgages made with seller-financed down payments to buyers who don't have the cash for a down payment. The Bush administration had argued for the ban saying that these no-money-down mortgages go to foreclosure three times as often as FHA mortgages in which the buyer puts a down payment on the house....

Shays has received the second largest amount of support from the association. They spent nearly $1.3 million helping re-elect Rep. Paul Kanjorsky, D-Pa., a 12-term Democrat who chairs the Financial Services subcommittee that oversees government-sponsored enterprises like Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.

Brownsox at Daily Kos also has more:

To wit, witness this 2007 comment from Shays, an avowed member of the blame-homeowners-first crowd:

Shays said he's concerned Democrats want to use taxpayer money to bail out homeowners who should not have bought a house. "I can't imagine helping people who should not have gotten a loan in the first place."

To which the Connecticut Post responded:

But before lawmakers direct all their opprobrium at the subprime recipients, they should remember that there's a reason it's known as "predatory" lending. Unscrupulous lenders take advantage of people's lack of expertise to rope them into damaging arrangements that look agreeable in the short term, but spin out of control thereafter. Most recipients are guilty only of believing the hype that everyone in America deserves, and has the ability, to own a home.

So when Rep. Christopher Shays says, "I can't imagine helping people who should not have gotten a loan in the first place," it's worth wondering who he's taking out his anger on. Is it the people who were defrauded, or the ones who did the defrauding?

The same week that Shays helped get the Financial Services Committee to approve H.R. 6694, the National Association of Realtors PAC dumped over $500,000 into pro-Shays ad buys. Obviously, Shays is also in a hotly contested race with Orange to Blue candidate Jim Himes.

As it happens, Shays has close ties to realtors specializing in loans to low-income families; his brother Tony is just such a realtor.

At the same time, Shays' brother, Tony, is a real-estate broker whose Stamford firm stands to benefit from the reintroduction of the SFDPA program, as it caters to low-income buyers.

So now we know what it takes for Both Ways Shays to be converted from his erstwhile position urging homeowner responsibility, to a staunch defender of no-down-payment lending.

Every man has his price, it seems, and Chris Shays' price is $800,000 in campaign ads, plus a sweet gig for his brother.

Here's a slideshow from this morning:

McCain, Palin, and Bush continute to drag down Chris Shays, and a noted prognosticator moves the race from Leans R to Leans D. Here's the news this morning:

- The New Republic has a profile of the race this morning, including one of many voters who is switching from Shays to Himes:

I asked Shays how he could reconcile his support of Palin with his worldview. "If people want to say she has views about government that I disagree with--what she has and what I like about her is what I like about John McCain," he responded, adding, "I really believe she is one gutsy person that is willing to shake things up in her state in a way that few men have." In other words, Shays supports Palin because he sees her as a fellow maverick.

But that stance could cost him in a district where Obama currently leads by ten points. At a town fair in working-class Shelton, I met Linda Robak, a 54-year-old who had long counted herself a Shays fan but is now working for the Himes campaign. "It all changed when he endorsed Sarah Palin and called her a qualified candidate for v.p.," Robak told me. "Three weeks ago, I sent him a letter. I always respected him, but he threw away his credibility."

- Larry Sabato takes note of the Obama-Himes surge and the McCain-Shays drag, moves CT-04 a full two slots from "Leans R" to "Leans D":

HOUSE RACE UPDATE - Democratic Domination Continues

Larry J. Sabato, Isaac Wood, and Paul Wiley, Crystal Ball, U.Va. Center for Politics

Every week it seems to get worse for House Republicans. As we will demonstrate below, we have expanded the number of possible to likely net gains for Democrats from our previous 15 to 20 to a new and rather astounding 22 to 27 seats.

The past week has been a wild one for congressional races nationwide. Some contests have gotten more competitive, and in some districts one party has even pulled away. And by "one party," we do in fact mean "one party"--the Democrats. This week the Crystal Ball is making 33 changes to its House ratings, some of them major, and others minor. In all but two of those races the changes benefit Democrats....

RATINGS CHANGES
District Incumbent Previous Rating New Rating

CT-04 Shays Leans R Leans D

- The Cook Report looks at the recent polling and concurs:

"That's a very bad place for Chris Shays to be," Wasserman said in a phone interview. "Forty-four percent against a not-very-well-known quantity is a very serious warning sign."

Wasserman said that most uncommitted voters tend to vote for the challenger and support the majority party in the district.

As things come down to the wire, here's what's going on this morning:

- Social Security privatization advocate Newt Gingrich holds a fundraiser for Social Security privatization advocate Chris Shays in Greenwich:

"You know that almost 100 people showed up at 7:30 a.m. on a cold Tuesday morning," said Michael Sohn, campaign manager for Shays. "I think that people are curious to hear what speaker Gingrich is saying. He's one of the most intellectual people in politics."

- The New Haven Register was at a press conference with Rosa DeLauro and Jim Himes in Shelton, on the importance of protecting Social Security:The two Democrats spoke about the faltering economy and the financial difficulties retirees face every day.

Himes said there is "a general need to preserve and strengthen the economy and preserve the security of our senior citizens."

Himes, a former executive at Goldman Sachs & Co., said he understands the need for senior citizens to save and invest prudently in the stock market.

However, he supports the "basic promise" made to retirees that because of Social Security benefits, they will not face poverty in their golden years.

- The Politico thinks Shays might be ousted this year:

Two years ago, Shays survived by about 7,000 votes after turnout in the city dropped dramatically and failed to offset Republican votes in the wealthier towns in lower Fairfield County. Anecdotal evidence, especially the continued pace of new voter registration, suggests this election will tell a different story.

"That is a great example of how motivated they are," says Angel De Para, a 33-year-old Bridgeport councilman, telling of meeting applicants at the registrar's office. "They want to be part of this monumental election that is definitely going to set the tone for decades to come."

- Down With Tyranny on Shays trying to run away from the "McTaint":

Meanwhile, a far bigger factor is coming into play that independents: "McCain Drag", or reverse coattails, on down-ticket races. McCain has already proven himself a disaster for GOP House candidates in special elections in red districts of Illinois, Louisiana and Mississippi, all of whom were beaten by Democrats. Bush rubber stamp Chris Shays has been successful in distorting his record enough to trick many independents in CT-04 into thinking he wasn't a Bush clone. Now he's trying to persuade them that he's down with Obama, who is polling 20 points ahead of McCain in the district.

But progressive Democrat Jim Himes is looking like the man to finally put an end to Shays' disgraceful and dishonest political career.

What else is happening today?

CT-04 gets a lot of ink and pixels today, from the Wall Street Journal to the Politico to the local papers on the recent poll and Jim's strong debate performances... check the news section for all the details.

The emerging consensus among all seems to be that Shays at 44%, plus the Obama surge, plus Shays' ties to the policies and party of John McCain, put him at a distinct disadvantage two weeks out from election day. From the front page of today's Washington Post:

The importance of the black vote is so great, even though it represents just 11 percent of the district, that Shays is running ads directly aimed at Bridgeport that feature African American residents testifying about his effectiveness in Congress. Another Shays ad includes an image of Obama, in the most direct attempt by a House Republican to tie himself to the top of the Democratic ticket.

Himes based his campaign headquarters in Bridgeport and has sent mailings tailored to African American voters. He has met with minority organizations and, like Kissell and others, has made the rounds of black churches.

Noted House prognosticator Stuart Rothenberg adds in an analysis for CNN today:

WASHINGTON (CNN) -- Chris Shays of Connecticut, the last Republican in the House of Representatives from New England, is used to running against the partisan tide. But this year, the wave might be too high for the Republican congressman to overcome.

Recent polls show Republican Rep. Chris Shays tied with or trailing his Democratic opponent in Connecticut...

McCain, R-Arizona, trailed Illinois Sen. Barack Obama by 21 points in Connecticut's 4th District, according to an October 13-14 SurveyUSA poll for Roll Call newspaper. A just-released University of Connecticut poll and a mid-September survey by the Democratic Feldman Group also had Obama winning by at least 20 points. By comparison, Democratic presidential candidate John Kerry won the district by just 6 points four years ago.

Recent public and private polling shows Shays either tied with or trailing his Democratic opponent Jim Himes. In 2004, Shays got 6 more points than President Bush, but the congressman will need a significantly larger number of Obama voters to cross over this year.

He concludes:

A big wave for Obama might be too much of a burden for Republican congressional candidates to bear at a time when they are already saddled with an unpopular Republican president and an unpopular Republican brand.